Celebrity Suburbs - Updated

With last week's launch of the 2013 Centenary of Canberra program, I'm particularly keen on the local angle. Portrait of a Nation, of which I'm a patron, will encourage Canberrans to use 2012-13 to learn more about the people after whom their streets and suburbs are named.

Of course, no history is complete without a counterfactual history, and that's where celebtrity suburb names come in. This is the game where you see who can come up with the silliest suggestions of celebrities after whom your suburb could have been named.

Earlier this year, I posted a list of suggestions from Maryann Mussared, and then called Twitter for more. Here are some of those that came back:

  • @ArabellaSL - Pearce must be named after Guy Pearce & Russell after Russell Crowe

  • Nicholas Ellis ‏ - Weetangera after hip-hop band The Wu-Tang Clan

  • Karen Hardy ‏ - real housewives of the OC - o'connor.

  • Policy Australia ‏ - Had Bruce Hawker double dipped?*

  • Karin - Lyneham after Paul Lyneham (the late ABC journalist)

  • @TinyTheCabbie - Theodore after the chipmunk

  • David Mathews - Hughes after Merv Hughes

* This suggests another game. Who are the celebrities named after two suburbs? The only other I can think of is ANU economist Bruce Chapman.

Update: They keep coming.

  • @MarciaKKeegan - Harrison Forde

  • Ian Warden alerts me to this 2011 Canberra Times article, featuring adult film actress Paige Turner, Test cricketer Phillip Hughes, ABC journalist Russell Barton and retired English soccer goalkeeper Gordon Banks.

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Talking about the National Disability Insurance Scheme

I spoke in parliament this morning about the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
NDIS, 12 September 2012

On 24 August it was my pleasure to join with parliamentary secretary Jan McLucas and member for Canberra, Gai Brodtmann, at the Griffin Centre in Canberra to hold a forum on the National Disability Insurance Scheme. It is the second forum in my electorate on the NDIS that I have helped organise. A previous forum in Belconnen was well attended by a range of carers, people with disabilities and people of goodwill who are committed to building a national disability insurance scheme. I also met in my electorate office with a range of people with disabilities and their carers to discuss what an NDIS will mean for them.

Some of the stories of people who care for people with disabilities are profoundly shocking. As the Every Australian Counts website says, 'Which developed country would expect someone to live with two showers a week?' That is Australia. We heard the story of a Queensland woman who has to reapply every 15 days for emergency care. We heard about mothers of children with Down syndrome who have to constantly prove that their child's chromosomes have not changed. They have to be constantly reassessed. We heard stories about a child in the Northern Territory who has to hand in his hearing aids when he leaves school at the end of each day.

Building a national disability insurance scheme must be done in collaboration with people with disabilities and their carers. We need to ask, 'What do you want and how can we deliver it?' Assessments under the National Disability Insurance Scheme need to be done no more frequently than is necessary. Over-frequent assessments are enormously frustrating for people with disabilities and their carers and sometimes contribute to carers losing their jobs.

The parliamentary secretary had three asks for people at the forum and I share them with the  House. She wants people to go to the Every Australian Counts website and sign up. Go to www.ndis.gov.au and learn more about the NDIS, and talk about the National Disability Insurance Scheme with all Australians. Recognise that we need to build a nationwide national disability insurance scheme.

I am very proud that the ACT is one of the launch sites for the NDIS. I was pleased to join the Prime Minister and Chief Minister Katy Gallagher at Black Mountain School on 26 July to discuss the issues. Canberra is one of the sites that is leading the way in improving care for people with disabilities, but we still have a long way to go. I applaud the passion of the parliamentary secretary, the Prime Minister, the Chief Minister, Minister Macklin and many others. This is an important task and it is a mark of a civilised society that we do it.
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Talking child care on Ten News

I spoke on Ten News yesterday about my Child Care Survey results and the Gillard Government's work to improve the quality and affordability of child care.

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Why Don't Some Countries Sign the Refugee Convention?

I spoke in parliament last night about one of the central questions in the refugee debate - why have many countries in our region chosen not to sign the refugee convention?
Dealing with Non-Signatories to the Refugee Convention, 11 September 2012

In recent months much of the debate in Australia over refugees has centred around whether countries with which we deal have signed the 1951 United Nations Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 protocol. For the coalition I think this is largely just another excuse to say no. Let us face it, refugee policy in the Howard years was hardly characterised by a great deference to international law. But there are many people of goodwill who I meet at my community forums and mobile offices who ask me, quite reasonably, why the government wants to deal with a non-signatory country. I wish to use the chance this evening to answer that question.

Broadly, there are three sets of countries. There are rich countries that are able to enforce their border protection—for example, OECD nations are almost entirely signatories. Then there are poor countries to which many refugees would not wish to go. Somalia is one country that comes to mind. Again, they are happy to sign the convention. Then there is a third group of countries—those poorer countries situated close to refugee sending nations. In many cases these countries are not signatories. As a branch member in the ACT, Barbara Phi, has pointed out to me, countries like India, Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia are non-signatories, and they are non-signatories for various reasons. Chief among those reasons is that they do not wish to attract refugees from neighbouring countries.

The reality is that the refugee convention was created to deal with the mass flight of refugees from war ravaged Europe in the 1950s. The reality now is that people are fleeing in much greater numbers. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, at the end of 2011 Pakistan had 1.7 million refugees. As a result, there are substantial resource implications for such countries of signing the refugee convention. The costs of processing asylum seeker claims and meeting education, health and housing obligations can be prohibitive for poorer nations. For those bordering refugee-sending nations, these obligations are a very real resource issue.

In April 2007, the Malaysian foreign ministry's parliamentary secretary told the news outlet Malaysiakini it would not officially recognise refugees since:

The government is of the opinion that if Malaysia becomes party to the Convention, considering its strategic geographical location in the region, it would be a drawing factor for refugees to come to Malaysia.

Malaysia is concerned that, were it to sign the refugee convention, it would be obliged to resettle close to 100,000 people in its camps. A recent UNHCR evaluation on the protection of urban refugees reported Malaysia 'considers the task of providing refugees with protection, assistance and solutions to be the responsibility of the international community'. It went on:

While refugees and asylum seekers are tolerated, it was on the clear condition that UNHCR provides any resources and services associated with their presence.

I am committed to international agreements; I support the aims of the refugee convention. But we must realise the context in which the refugee convention was built. Even the opposition spokesperson, the member for Cook, has said the refugee convention 'no longer reflects the practical reality'. The practical reality is that we are in a region in which many of our neighbours are non-signatories to the convention, and if you want a regional framework then that necessitates dealing with non-signatory countries.

The Houston report recommended that we establish bilateral agreements in the short term while working towards a longer term regional framework under the Bali process. That means that we have an international agreement that is able to share appropriate responsibility for the 3.6 million refugees in our regions. That is why we have endorsed the recommendations of the Houston report and have made the necessary compromises, many of them painful, to stop the politicking and make sure people do not risk their lives at sea.
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Design in the National Capital

I spoke in parliament this evening about a bill to give the National Portrait Gallery its own piece of legislation.
National Portrait Gallery of Australia Bill, 11 September 2012

It is my pleasure to follow the member for Hinkler and to agree with so much of what he had to say in his very articulate speech. There is much that divides us in this place, but I think it is often the arts which can bring us together. I particularly appreciated the member for Hinkler's comments about the great wisdom and prescience of the Whitlam government.

The National Portrait Gallery was something I remember first thinking about when I lived as a whippersnapper in London for a number of years. I was there on my own and loved the opportunity to visit the British National Portrait Gallery. It has that great combination of art and history you get in a portrait gallery. Wandering amidst the portraits there, I remember thinking to myself, 'It would be great if Australia had one of these.' As previous speakers have noted, Tom Roberts had had that idea in the early 1900s, but it was not until much later, 1999, that Australia got its National Portrait Gallery.

For its first ten years, the National Portrait Gallery was in Old Parliament House—a beautiful venue but not one which was created as an art space. The new National Portrait Gallery space is a unique spot. You get that sense of what an interesting location it is going to be when you approach it and see the imbalance of the architecture on the front—it looks as if it is not possible for the cantilever to hold up. Then, as soon as you enter, you are struck by portraits which range right through Australian history, such as Ah Xian's ceramic bust of John Yu, Bill Henson's triptych of Simone Young and Howard Arkley's portrait of Nick Cave.

Mr Neville interjecting—

Dr LEIGH:  As the member for Hinkler points out, it is the way the light strikes those works which really makes it such a success—as is the case in any great gallery space.

I have two favourite portraits at the gallery. One, in common with the member for Hinkler, is the portrait of Michael Kirby by Ralph Heimans. I was associate to Michael Kirby at the time the portrait was done and it sat in the corner of his office for the first few months while he wandered forwards and backwards past it, trying to work out what he thought of it. It is of course not the most modest of portraits. It portrays the judge as, I think, a sort of Romanesque figure standing out—the only one facing the artist—amidst an array of judges. I think it is quite befitting of Michael Kirby's career as a judge—constantly with his face to us, not just writing the judgements but engaging the polity.

My other favourite portrait is the one of Deborah Mailman painted by Evert Ploeg. Deborah Mailman is just looking directly at the viewer with a sense of boldness and a sense of power. There is such strength coming out of the portrait.

The National Portrait Gallery is engaged in digital portraiture as well. My favourite portraits, I confess, are the oils, but so many of the new portraits these days are screen based digital portraits. On 2 August, the National Portrait Gallery announced the inaugural winner of its $10,000 iD Digital Portraiture Award. The artist judged to have made the most outstanding screen based digital portrait was Laura Moore. Her portrait was titled Animation 1. Other finalists were Aaron James McGarry, Nina Mulhall, Clare Thackway and Bridget Walker. Those portraits can be viewed in the National Portrait Gallery until 28 October.

This bill gives the National Portrait Gallery its own piece of legislation. That will be important, as previous speakers have noted, in allowing the gallery to stand on its own two feet and to engage, as the other cultural institutions do, with other entities and with other government departments. As the member for Canberra eloquently noted in her speech, the National Portrait Gallery will be involved in the extraordinary Centenary of Canberra celebrations which start next year. The theme of the Centenary of Canberra, curated by the energetic Robyn Archer is: 'seed now, blossom in 2013, flower for another hundred years'.

Not surprisingly, the National Portrait Gallery is involved in the centenary as well. It is going to feature a number of exhibitions coinciding with centenary themes through next year. A particular highlight will be Elvis at 21, an exhibition toured by the Smithsonian Institution Travelling Exhibition Service, with Canberra the only Australian venue. It consists of a collection of photos of Elvis Presley that are 'remarkably candid, intimate and fresh' according to the publicity material.

Although it is not at the Portrait Gallery, the Portrait of a Nation project will form part of the Canberra centenary celebrations. Portrait of a Nation will remind Canberrans that our nation's rich history lies in our street and suburb names. Portrait of a Nation, for which I am one of the spokespeople, will encourage Canberrans to rediscover the significant national figures after whom their streets and suburbs are named and learn a little bit more about the history of those people, perhaps even make a family link. For example, the relatives of one of those people might attend a Christmas celebration in your street which is named after that person.

If Canberra were a person, I think it would be an egalitarian patriot, someone who understands the past but is not bound by it—and the National Portrait Gallery is very much part of that. It recognises our rich history and the great value of design in nourishing the soul as well as the mind.

Another design event recently brought to the national capital was the Australian Institute of Landscape Architects national landscape architecture awards, which I attended with pleasure last week. I want to briefly acknowledge the award winners. The 2012 Australian Medal for Landscape Architecture went to UDLA. The AILA National Landscape Architecture Award of Excellence went to Plan (E). Other awards went to Jeavons Landscape Architects for their Clifton Hill railway project and to Fresh Landscape Design for their Roogulli project in Bywong, New South Wales. ASPECT Studios won an award for their innovative work at Pirrama Park and another for their project at Jack Evans Boat Harbour in Tweed Heads. Andrew Green received an award for their SW1 project; Ecoscape Australia, for Mueller Park Universal Playspace; Vee Design for the Robelle Domain in Ipswich; and McGregor Coxall, for the Australian Garden and the new entry of the National Gallery of Australia—and it is great to see such high-quality design here in the nation's capital.

Taylor Cullity Lethlean received an award for their Wild Sea exhibit at Melbourne Zoo. They are a really innovative firm of landscape architects. I know they are still mourning principal Kevin Taylor, who, tragically, died in a car crash last year. He was an alchemy of extraordinary qualities, being not only a great designer but also an extraordinary teacher.

Spackman Mossop Michaels received an award for the Humanities and Science Campus in the Parliamentary Triangle; John Mongard Landscape Architects, for Bingara and the Living Classroom; UDLA, for the Kimberley LNG precinct strategic assessment report; and the City of Bendigo, for the Bendigo Botanic Gardens Master Plan. Harris Hobbs received an award for the Bonner P-6 School and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Learning and Cultural Centre, a project in my own electorate of Fraser. Clouston Associates received an award for the Clarence River Way master plan; and Fitzgerald Frisby Landscape Architecture, for Lollipop Creek.

Zoe Metherell received a research and communication award for a comparative study on Melbourne's freeway planting designs; Oxigen Landscape Architects, for Green Infrastructure; HASSELL, for their project, Local-area Envisioning and Sustainability scoring system; Spackman Mossop Michaels, for their Chinatown Public Domain Plan, a really innovative re-design of Sydney's Chinatown area; and Taylor Cullity Lethlean, for their Victoria Square project. There were also two leadership awards, which went to Lucinda Hartley and Gweneth Leigh. I would like to acknowledge the national jurors who worked to select the award winners: Niall Simpson, Paul Harding, Alison Breach, Catherine Brouwer, Gary Rake and Catriona McLeod. Again, it was a great showcasing of design here in the national capital.

So much of what makes Canberra extraordinary is that meld of design and history of which the National Portrait Gallery is such a strong part and one that I am enormously proud to be engaged in as a Canberran. I commend the bill to the House.
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The Coalition's Costings Crater

I spoke in parliament last night on an amendment calling on the Coalition to submit their costings to the independent Parliamentary Budget Office.
Coalition Costings and the Parliamentary Budget Office, 10 September 2012

The motion which we are debating this evening is moved by the member for Mayo, who is one of the self-appointed group of modest members. The term 'modest members' is not only a current misnomer but also a historical reference to the great Bert Kelly. In thinking about speaking to the member for Mayo's motion I thought perhaps I would go to my bookshelves and pull down Economics Made Easy by Bert Kelly. As I listened to the member for North Sydney, I was struck by the words in Rod Carnegie's introduction. He says, 'When confrontation and mutual name calling are stock forms of debate it does us all a service to learn and relearn that shouting loud and long need not be as effective as gentle persuasion.'

We have just had 10 minutes of long, loud shouting from the member for North Sydney. It is not quite clear what the member for North Sydney is saying about the coalition's position on preferencing the Greens in the electorate of Melbourne. The historical record shows that the decision by the Liberal Party to preference the Greens Party in Melbourne saw the first election at a general election of the current member for Melbourne. In his speech, the member for North Sydney said, 'We don't back frauds,' and, 'You'll suffer,' but it is not clear whether they are words which ought to be taken as gospel truth and carefully scripted remarks or whether they are merely off-the-cuff rhetoric to be thrown around in a debate and have no matter when it comes to the Liberal Party's decision on preferencing at the next election.

I would be delighted to have a modest member alive and well on the coalition's side of the parliament, but the fact is that they are dead as a dodo. Bert Kelly has no heir. Doug Anthony is alive and well, as Senator Joyce showed us in an extraordinary interview with Marius Benson this morning. The only thing that remains of Bert Kelly is a great sense of humour. You have to admire the humour that the member for Mayo brings to this chamber in moving a motion on transparency of costings. That is because we are speaking about an opposition which has a $70 billion crater in its costings, requiring $70 billion of cuts. Were the member for North Sydney in the chamber, he would doubtless shout that that is a Labor Party fabrication. Let me quote from an interview from the member for Goldstein on ABC 24 on 18 August 2011:

‘The $70 billion is an indicative figure of the challenge we've got … if we start to impose some discipline we should be able to stop spending in the order of $70 billion …’

Or on Meet the Press on 4 September 2011:

‘Q: It's not like a furphy, then?

‘A: No, it's not a furphy. We came out with the figure, right?’

Seventy billion dollars is the equivalent of stopping the Family Tax Benefit for three years; it is the equivalent of cutting the age pension for three years; it is an extraordinarily large sum of money. The amendment simply says that if the coalition has to find cuts of that magnitude it ought to follow the Parliamentary Budget Office process.

We have a Parliamentary Budget Office which came into being as a result of a bipartisan parliamentary committee—the member for Higgins and Senator Joyce signed on for the recommendations of that committee. The amendment calls on all parties to submit their costings to the Parliamentary Budget Office. Once upon a time the coalition was going to do just that. The coalition had some problems in the last election. According to Treasury, they had an $11 billion crater in their costings as a result of having them audited by a private accounting firm. Curiously, the member for North Sydney said that what they had done was an audit with a small 'a'. It is a bit strange, because there is no such thing as a big 'a' audit. 'Audit' is one of those words that comes with a small 'a'. They did not do a small 'a' audit. In fact, WHK Horwath was subsequently found to have breached professional standards in the context of the coalition's costings. So, you would think that the coalition would now be embracing openness and transparency in their costings but, sadly, they are doing anything but.

The shadow immigration spokesperson, the member for Cook, has had costings done by a catering firm, suggesting that using a private accounting firm might be the high point in quality of the coalition's costings. There have been suggestions that this might involve cooking the books and that at best we could expect to see some pie charts from the opposition, but they are lines which I will leave the member for Mayo to deliver, given that he is the great prankster in the parliament this evening. The member for Goldstein has told Sky Sunday Agenda:

‘I've got on my desk, as co-ordinator of our policies, 49 policy documents with covers—‘

It is great, isn't it, that they pick the covers? They haven't got any of the numbers checked, but they have picked the covers. It has a great Hollowmen aspect to it.

‘… narrative, a list of policies, what Labor has done wrong and the costings.’

Apparently, the costings have been done. What we are calling on the coalition to do is no more than they indicated they would do when a joint bipartisan report was brought down by the member for Higgins, Kelly O'Dwyer, Senator Joyce and others backing the Parliamentary Budget Office.

The member for North Sydney has said he might use the new budget office in one report. Then he has told The Insiders on 6 May 2012 that:

‘…we want to submit policies to it. In addition to other services, we want to submit policies to it for costing.’

And then in a doorstop on 30 May 2012:

‘Journalist: So you are giving a commitment to submit your election promises to the Parliamentary Budget Office?

‘Joe Hockey: We will give some policies.’

This is the equivalent of Mr Howard's immigration policy: 'We will give choose the policies we give to the Parliamentary Budget Office and the circumstances in which we give them.'

The Australian people deserve better than that. There are coalition policies that are all over the shop. The coalition wants to continue the superannuation increases but repeal the minerals resource rental tax—the profits based tax—which is a tax so supported across the political spectrum internationally that Sarah Palin signed on to a profits based tax for taxing resources. It is not a left-wing way of taxing resources; it is just a sensible way. When the price goes up, because the price is set by the world, the taxpayer deserves a bigger share of the money. Instead, the coalition wants to go back to the old royalties regime. It also wants to cut taxes on polluters. First it is tax cuts for big miners, then it is a tax cut for big polluters and then it is unwinding the means test for private health insurance. Of course, when the private health insurance rebate was first put in place it did not generate a bump up in the take-up of private health insurance, and we have seen no evidence so far that the means testing of the private health insurance rebate has seen high-income earners drop their private health insurance. But they are getting a tax cut, too, from the coalition. So that is big miners, big polluters and very high-income Australians. If you are a millionaire, you are getting back your 30 per cent private health insurance rebate under the coalition. The coalition says it will support the National Disability Insurance Scheme, but we have no idea how it will go about paying for it.

What Australians are worried about is that what they are seeing from the coalition has a lot of the smell of what is going on in Queensland. Before the election the coalition gives the notion that everything will be okay, but after the election it slashes and burns. The member for Mayo himself is on record in his so-called Modest Member column as saying:

‘Pensions, disability support, family tax benefits and childcare support, among others, create a cycle of dependency for millions of Australians.’

That is just a hint as to where the money might come from. The Australian people deserve better than to have the opposition hiding behind the veil of secrecy. They have the right to expect that they will get what Kelly O'Dwyer and Barnaby Joyce promised them: coalition promises that are properly costed. The amendment calls on the coalition to do just that. I commend the amendment to the House.
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Private Robert Poate

I spoke in parliament yesterday about Private Robert Poate, a young Canberra man killed in Afghanistan.
Private Robert Poate, 10 September 2012

Among the fallen that we remember today is Canberra-born Private Robert Poate. This young, promising and highly qualified soldier's life was cut short by a rogue Afghan solider in Oruzgan province last month. He was on his first tour of duty. Today we offer our deepest condolences to Private Poate's colleagues, friends and, most of all, his family: Hugh, Janny and Nicola. As a soldier, a mate, a brother and a son, this tragic loss has been keenly felt by Canberra's close-knit community.

After enlisting in 2009, Private Poate rapidly earned a reputation for his professionalism and his leadership qualities. Private Poate completed specialist training as a Protected Mobility Vehicle Driver one year after his initial employment training and went on to complete training as Protected Mobility Vehicle Commander last year.

He was also renowned for his strong leadership skills, completing a promotion course for corporal, also in 2011. Private Poate was recognised for his achievements and was awarded the following awards: the Australian Active Service Medal with clasp ICAT, the Afghan Campaign Medal, the Australian Defence Medal, the NATO Non-Article 5 Medal with clasp ISAF, and the Infantry Combat Badge.

But, beyond the official acclamations, Private Poate will also be remembered for his larrikinism. His close friend rugby paralympian Cody Meakin remembers Private Poate as being 'just a lad'. He said:

‘He was cheeky, always had a cheeky grin. Nothing ever phased him … He was just a top bloke, one of the most genuine and loyal blokes I had the pleasure of hanging out with. He always had time for me. Not because he felt sorry for me, but because he genuinely wanted to hang out.’

Cody Meakin has since had his wheelchair inscribed with a special tribute to his fallen friend. He says:

‘… hopefully it'll give me a bit more in the tank, to try that little bit harder …’

Private Poate's brothers by choice in the 6th Battalion of the Royal Australian Regiment offer a similar portrait:

‘Private Poate had a reputation for creating mischief without getting caught and was proud of his family, his military service, his Canberran origins, and his red hair, which he vehemently defended as being strawberry blonde.’

The broader Canberra community also share warm memories of Private Poate. Justin Garrick, the head of Canberra Grammar School, where Private Poate spent 15 of his too short 23 years, recalls:

‘… an open and purposeful young man and an all-rounder in the academic, sporting and co-curricular life of the School. He was also the son of Mrs Janny Poate, who recently retired as receptionist at the front office of the Senior School after more than two decades’ association’

The service that was held at Canberra Grammar to remember Private Poate reminds me of that quote sometimes attributed to the Duke of Wellington that the Battle of Waterloo was won on the playing fields of Eton. All the descriptions of Private Poate paint a portrait of a talented, spirited and fiercely loyal young man. His death is a loss for the whole nation.

He died in a green-on-blue attack, part of a worrying trend in Afghanistan. This year over 30 NATO troops have died from such attacks, more than twice as many as last year. The leader of the US war effort in Afghanistan, Marine General John Allen, is convening a meeting of all US and NATO flag officers to assess the phenomenon. I am not sure that we know everything about what is causing these green-on-blue attacks, but I do think in part that they reflect our success in changing the Afghan military for the better. I think what we are seeing with these green-on-blue attacks is the desperate attacks of an extremist movement that knows it has run out of all other options apart from infiltrating the Afghan military. I do hope we are able to revamp the screening processes for Afghan soldiers, because the abuse of trust that these green-on-blue attacks cause is extraordinarily damaging for Australia in Afghanistan.

The loss of Private Poate reminded me of those classic words from Pericles's funeral oration2,500 years back, but they ring through the ages. He said:

‘… for the Athens that I have celebrated is only what the heroism of these and their like have made her … none of these allowed either wealth with its prospect of future enjoyment to unnerve his spirit, or poverty with its hope of a day of freedom and riches to tempt him to shrink from danger … reckoning this to be the most glorious of hazards, they joyfully determined to accept the risk …’

As Pericles said:

‘So died these men as became Athenians. You, their survivors, must determine to have as unfaltering a resolution in the field, though you may pray that it may have a happier issue.’

The selfless bravery of Private Poate and the other brave men who have lost their lives in Afghanistan, their dedication and their service should provide this House with a great perspective on our own responsibility. His contribution has made a difference. It will not be forgotten. May he and his fellow soldiers rest in peace.
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Republicanism, Optimism and Demography

I opened the new national office of the Australian Republican Movement last night.
Opening the National Office of the Australian Republican Movement
10 September 2012

[Acknowledgements omitted.]

There is no more appropriate place for the ACT National Office than in Canberra, the one jurisdiction in Australia that voted for a Republic in 1999.

Of course, Canberra also voted for Waltzing Matilda as our national song.

So if the rest of Australia was like Canberra, we’d be a Republic with a national song about a sheep rustler.

This is also a great suburb in which to have the ARM office.

Not only are we a stone’s throw from my home in Hackett, but the suburb of Watson carries a great lineage.

Chris Watson was Labor’s first Prime Minister.

He only lasted 3 months in the job but I am sure your term of office here will far exceed this.

There are also similarities between the ARM and Watson.

Courtesy and tact.

The ability to turn defeat into victory.

Having lost office to George Reid’s conservatives, Watson later helped to end Reid’s Government.

In similar fashion I know the next referendum for an Australian Head of State will favour Republicans.

Watson is also home to the Australian Catholic University. And ACU Vice Chancellor (and Republican) Greg Craven has a neat line in his book Conversations with the Constitution that sums up the challenge of the Republican cause.

‘Saying the Australian Constitution does not have a strong hold on our popular imagination is like saying fish survive better in water than on land: a statement so obvious as to be remarkable only because someone could be bothered making it.’

But that does not make it an insurmountable challenge.

The more time I spend observing and studying politics, the more I realise the importance of opportunity and timing.

I do believe that when the opportunity presents itself for change our Constitution will have a stronger hold on the imagination of Australians.

The challenge is create a sense of urgency and need for Constitutional reform.

However, I fear the task just got more difficult.

Prince Harry might be doing too good a job of promoting the attractions of the Monarchy.

But more seriously, we are now in a new media space that will require a new and innovative strategy if we are to create the desire for change.

Inane repetition of slogan and appeals to the lowest common denominator are an easy path for Monarchists, and frustratingly do gain traction though the media.

Phrases like ‘Don’t know? Vote no.’, and ‘Vote no to the politicians’ Republic’ were used effectively against the Republican cause.

Their architect, Tony Abbott, is still putting to use the strategies he first deployed in 1999.

The good news is that they eventually lose their potency.

It proved true – over a century on – for the anti-Billites who opposed federation.

It is proving true now with the Coalition.

It will prove true for our progression to being a Republic.


People often suggest that the timing of Australia’s Republican revival depends on the demographics of the Royal Family.

But I think Australia’s demographics matter more.

Australia’s future lies in our region. We have been enriched by Asian migrants, and so many of us now work, study and holiday in Asia.

In a submission to the Asian Century White Paper process, Senator Lisa Singh and I argued that a corollary of our engagement with Asia is Australia becoming a Republic.

The other demographic change is generational.

I want the children here today  to be able to aspire to be Australia’s head of state.

They deserve no less.

It is with the greatest pleasure that I open the new national office of the Australian Republican Movement.

And while I am pleased to do this, I will be even more delighted when we return to close it.

When the work of the ARM is done, and Australia has finally become a Republic.
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Child Care Survey - Results

I recently surveyed the Fraser electorate on their experiences with local child care.

The headline results? Most people are happy with their child’s care, many still collect the Child Care Rebate either quarterly or annually despite fortnightly now being an option and it’s about a 50/50 split as to whether parents are prepared to pay higher fees for reduced staff turnover and higher salaries.

Child Care Rebate

To me, the most surprising result was the number of people collecting the Child Care Rebate either quarterly or annually. On the face of it, it seems to make sense that receiving the benefit either fortnightly or paid directly to the centre might make it easier to balance household budgets.

While different financial arrangements obviously work for different families, it may just be that some families aren’t aware that you can receive the Child Care Rebate fortnightly or have it paid directly to the child care centre.

Even more concerning is that Kate Ellis, the Minister for Early Childhood and Child Care, said earlier this year that an estimated 1400 families in the ACT are eligible for the Child Care Rebate but not receiving it. I’d encourage all families to check whether they’re eligible for this support.

Happiness with care

The results showed a generally positive experience, with 79% of respondents saying they were ‘happy’ or ‘very happy’ with their child’s care. The experience across the electorate was relatively homogenous, at 81% for the Inner North, 79% for Belconnen and West Belconnen, and 74% in Gungahlin.

I’ve met many hard-working Early Childhood Educators, particularly through the Big Steps in Early Childhood Education and Care campaign run by United Voice and it’s great to see that parents recognise their hard work and dedication.

If you use formal care, would you be willing to pay higher fees in order to increase the salaries of staff and reduce staff turnover in centres?

While the overall split on this question was 55% in favour and 45% against, this was the one part of my survey that showed the strongest geographic difference within the electorate of Fraser. Belconnen/West Belconnen and Gungahlin showed remarkably different results on this question.

I’m aware of the strain that child care can place on a family’s budget, but one of the iron rules in politics is that there is never enough money for all the good things government wants to do. So I wanted to canvass parents’ views about the right trade-off between price and salaries.

In the free text area, many parents noted they already pay higher fees for their care and several also asked for the Government to contribute to better wages.

Working arrangements

I also asked respondents to tell me their working arrangements, and (if applicable) their partner’s working arrangements[1]. As most of the responses to my survey came through local child care centres distributing this to parents, it’s unsurprising to see responses generally skewed towards people working full-time and part-time using formal care.

There were again some slight differences within the electorate. 42% of families in Gungahlin had two parents working full-time, while in the Inner North this was 26% and only 20% in Belconnen/West Belconnen.


Early childhood education and care is a big policy challenge for government. The Prime Minister and Minister Kate Ellis have been working with the sector and I’ll pass on my findings to them to let them know about local experiences with child care. I’m very grateful for the feedback in this survey. You may also be interested to read Stephanie Peatling's writeup in the Sun-Herald.

I’d love to see more eligible families collecting the Child Care Rebate. Each year I host a ‘Welcoming the Babies’ event and I’ll make sure I provide more information on who is eligible for the Child Care Rebate and how parents can receive it.

If you didn’t take the survey, you’re still welcome to tell me your views. Send an email to Andrew.Leigh.MP{at}aph.gov.au to let me know what you think.

[1] Fewer than five respondents did not state working arrangements for a partner
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Talking Economics with Jan Libich

Last Wednesday, I spoke with La Trobe University economist Jan Libich about some of my academic findings - from teacher pay & aptitude to child gender & divorce - and possible policy implications. If you want to read more, the research is available at my academic website: www.andrewleigh.org.

And if you'd like to watch Jan's other interviews (including with Eric Leeper and Don Brash), they're available on his YouTube channel.

Dr Jan Libich: Welcome to La Trobe University in Melbourne. My name is Jan Libich and I’m privileged to have Dr Andrew Leigh here. Welcome Andrew. Thanks for joining us.

Dr Andrew Leigh: It’s a pleasure.

Dr Jan Libich: People see you now as a politician, due to your seat in the Australian House of Representatives for the Labor Party. But it should be mentioned that you were actually previously an Economics Professor at the Australian National University. I think one of the most prolific economics researchers. So, what we’re doing today: we’re going to try and merge your expertise in both economics and politics, and we’re going to focus on economic policy.

Specifically, we’re interested in how academic research can actually contribute to policy design and improve policy outcomes. Let’s start with education. In one of your papers, I think in 2006 with Chris Ryan, you’re looking at the quality of school teachers in Australia. You find a downward trend, you find a decline in the quality of the teachers. Then you look at possible explanations and you come up with teachers’ pay as one of the variables. Can you tell us what happened to teachers’ pay over time, and how it may link to teachers’ quality?

Dr Andrew Leigh: Absolutely. So the story of the academic aptitude of new teachers is that in 1983 the typical teacher was at the 70th percentile of the aptitude distribution – in the top 30 per cent of her class. By 2003, she was at the 62nd percentile – the top 38 per cent of her class. Chris (Ryan) and I talk about a number of possible explanations. One is this trade-off that policymakers made from the late 1980s to the early 2000s between cutting class sizes, but not increasing the overall salary budget commensurately. So roughly you saw a 10 per cent cut in teacher pay, relative to other occupations, and a 10 per cent cut in class size. So it’s almost like the new teachers were being paid out of the wallets of the existing teachers.

Then, you had some other factors going on. You had the fact that gender pay discrimination in the professions was rampant in the 1950s and 1960s. So it was almost like we were corralling Australia’s most talented women into teaching and nursing and as those gender pay gaps fell, we then saw a drop off in the share of suitably talented women entering teaching.

Thirdly, I think there’s also an increase in earnings inequality in the rest of the labour market, which posed a particular challenge for teaching. Teachers traditionally operated off uniform salary schedules.

Dr Jan Libich: Let’s think of the consequences. You have a 2009 paper where you’re actually looking at student outcomes. You look at the numeracy and literacy scores for Australian school children and you find a worrying trend. You find that there has been a decline in the scores. Given the increases in the expenditure per student, at face value it would imply a fall in the school productivity.  Can you tell us a little bit about that and how it actually links to your previous study about lowering of teachers’ pay?

Dr Andrew Leigh: Yes. School productivity is one of these ugly phrases that economists love and educational policy makers hate. But essentially, what you described is the trend we found. We went back through the dusty archives to try and find instances in which precisely the same maths or English question had been asked of successive cohorts. So, same wording, certain share of kids get it right in one test, another share of kids get it right in another test. We find flat or perhaps even declining test scores across a couple of different tests. One possibility is that the trade-off between dropping teacher pay relative to other professionals, and cutting class sizes, was actually the wrong trade-off to be making in that period.

Then there’s other possibilities, such as potentially changes in curriculum affecting outcomes.

There’s also a set of social changes, but to the extent that Chris (Ryan) and I can hold them constant, it doesn’t look as though things like more TV watching or a rise in single-parent households, or rise in kids from non-English speaking backgrounds explains much of it.

You’ve actually got trends that go in the opposite direction. Not just the spending, but also the fact that more kids than ever before have a parent with a tertiary education. So, it’s a bit of a black box. We can tell that Australia’s school kids in Year 8 or 9 aren’t scoring better than they did a generation ago, and I think that poses a pretty big challenge for policymakers like me.

Dr Jan Libich: If you combine the two findings, it kind of seems like a no-brainer. You have lower teachers’ pay, you’ve got lower quality teachers and then you have worse student outcomes. You’re suggesting that might be too simplistic. It may not explain the whole story.

Dr Andrew Leigh: I certainly think that teacher quality is important. One of the things that always surprises me is that parents worry a huge amount about which school their child attends. Yet, they worry very little about which teacher their child is taught by within a school. Yet, we know that the within-school variance is higher than the between-school variance. So I think that does suggest that we ought to be focusing on teacher quality. I think programs such as ‘Teach For Australia’ and ‘Teach Next’ are important in attracting alternative career entry. I think it’s also really important to think about retention of great teachers in the profession. That’s a key issue for policymakers. It’s not the only one. Test score accountability and the right level of principal autonomy matters as well, but teacher quality is pretty much my number one educational issue.

Dr Jan Libich: Okay, so what would be some of the policies to try to reverse this. You mentioned class size. Does that matter so much, as much as it was believed?

Dr Andrew Leigh: Certainly, we know that cutting class sizes down from 40 to 30 has a big impact on student outcomes. Cutting class sizes once they fall below 30 probably has smaller impacts. The research is varied. You have ‘Tennessee Project STAR’ suggesting still positive effects going from 22 down to 18. But I think now you’re probably down to a point where you want to think about teacher quality and teacher pay as being the top priority.

Dr Jan Libich: One of the critiques of the approach, and it’s not just the Labor Party’s approach, it’s the approach across the globe, is that it’s more of a top-down approach. The politicians kind of have an idea what the education system should look like. They try to impose it and a lot of critique is around school autonomy and there is some evidence that it is important for schools to have the autonomy to set various things like exams and other things. What do you think about this trade-off?

Dr Andrew Leigh: I think determining the right level of school autonomy is the most important thing. That partly turns on what principals feel they’re able to do. If you’ve got a principal who is comfortable managing the lawn mowing contracts and wants the flexibility to save money on lawn mowing so they can spend it on textbooks, then that’s fine. But if you’ve got a principal who mainly wants to be an educational leader and actually doesn’t want to spend a lot of their time working out how the budget’s going to look, then you don’t want to thrust upon that principal more autonomy than they’re ready to handle. So I think this is one of these areas where the people who become principals are important to thinking about the autonomy we should give them.

Dr Jan Libich: Let’s move to tertiary education because there are similar themes that apply. You have a study from 2007 where you look at the various returns to education. Specifically regarding tertiary education, you find that there’s a high personal benefit. Something in the order of 15 per cent increase in salary for every year of tertiary education. Now in regards to that, there’s a recent Grattan Institute report that is making the very same findings. And they argue based on that, that we can actually start reducing the education subsidies because students are basically getting all the private benefits, so we don’t need subsidies. What’s your view on this?

Dr Andrew Leigh: So clearly the private benefits are very large, as you said, 15 per cent a year. So a three year Bachelor’s degree is earning a student something in the order of (up to) 50 per cent increase in earnings. Most of that is through productivity.

Then the question is: how much are the private returns also matched by social returns? And sadly the social returns are easier to list than they are to measure. So you can list returns such as better productivity, so if you have more education and we’re sitting next to each other in adjoining cubicles, I might learn a lot from you and become more productive. A higher education might also mean that you have less of an impact on the health care system. It’s probably unlikely to have much of an impact on crime. Increased secondary schooling I think could well have social payoffs in crime. I’m less sure about universities.

And there might be political participation payoffs of which I think we’re fairly uncertain. So all of that adds up to, I think, big confidence intervals around what the social payoff to education is.

The Grattan Institute report seems to take a strongly rational view on debt. It seems to say we can ramp up student contributions without affecting equity outcomes. But what I worry about is there might be some degree of debt-aversion which even if it isn’t backed up by a rational model, could still lead kids from disadvantaged backgrounds to balk at a high sticker price. And to refuse to take on a university education. It would be good for them and would have big social payoffs.

Dr Jan Libich: Well I think the report does a pretty good job to try to present evidence that people from lower socio economic backgrounds would not be disadvantaged and it wouldn’t impact too much on them actually entering university. Also, there’s international evidence to that effect. So you still worry that that could occur?

Dr Andrew Leigh: But they’re testing out of sample, Jan. So the two best experiments we have are the ones that Bruce Chapman and Chris Ryan look at. The introduction of HECS and then the introduction of differential HECS in the late 1990s, which sees higher HECS bills again. But those increases are of a much smaller magnitude than is proposed in the Grattan Institute report. So students now may be asked at the end of their university education to pay back a debt equivalent to a small car. I don’t think that then tells us that we could increase their debt to be enough to pay off a small plane, and they wouldn’t balk at it.

Dr Jan Libich: Okay. Let’s move to other microeconomic policies. You were quite instrumental in your research in highlighting the fact that some government policies badly implemented can have severe distortionary effect on people’s behaviour. The study that pops into my mind is your 2006 study with Joshua Gans where you look at the introduction of the baby bonus and the timing of births. Can you tell us what it was about?

Dr Andrew Leigh: Sure. The baby bonus study centres around a policy change put in place by the Howard Government. They said any baby born on or after the 1st of July will receive $3,000. They were asked: what about a baby born on the evening of the 30th of June? And the Minister was very clear that such a family would not receive the baby bonus. There were rumours around this time that this had caused shifting of births and overcrowding in maternity wards. Joshua (Gans) was very close to the issue because his wife had one of their children in the July just after the baby bonus came into effect.

Dr Jan Libich: Was his child one of those that was moved?

Dr Andrew Leigh: Well, they had some difficulty getting an obstetrician at the time and that’s indeed what we find from the data. This is one of those studies where you actually don’t need much fancy econometrics. There is one day in Australia in which more babies were born than any other day in Australian history. And that’s the first day the baby bonus was introduced. You just see the graph spike up and then what’s troubling is that you see the birth rate higher even in the second week of July than it should have been. Suggesting, that of the thousand births that were shifted from June into July, a non-trivial share - may be a few hundred - were shifted by a couple of weeks. Generally, when we’re thinking about the health of babies, we’re worried about premature births but there’s also some evidence that babies that are in the womb well past term might suffer health consequences as well. So, while we didn’t find anything that was conclusive, we were concerned that the sharp introduction of the baby bonus had actually had adverse health consequences.

Dr Jan Libich: You basically warned against this, but then there was another step increase in the level of the baby bonus, I think twice, and the same thing happened. Although the spike was a little bit less.

Dr Andrew Leigh: That’s right, yes. So the Howard government then went and increased the baby bonus. Having introduced it in July 2004, increased it in July 2006, and just in case you’d thought the first result was a fluke, we saw the same effect in July 2006 again. We had released our study just prior to that in order to try and persuade the government to just step in the change. They didn’t and you again saw births shifting.

Dr Jan Libich: So, you’re basically now moving onto the question of how we can improve the design of policies to avoid these kind of distortionary outcomes.

Dr Andrew Leigh: Yeah, I think we want to think about introduction effects - it’s what Joshua (Gans) and I call it. So normally when we think about policy distortions, we think about the steady state effect of a policy. I think we ought to also make sure that when a policy is put into place, it doesn’t generate perverse incentives. Those introduction effects are not as critical as the enduring effects, but they matter and there’s simple ways to get around it. So for example, the Health Minister wrote to obstetricians prior to Labor’s increase of the baby bonus to make them aware of the fact that there had been births shifting previously and to encourage them to make sure that birth timing was only done with the health of the baby and the mother in mind. I hope that had some effect in reducing the degree of births shifting.

Dr Jan Libich: It’s peculiar because the government could easily change the policy. But instead they’re going to write an email to all those obstetricians asking them to do something, rather than actually changing the policy.

So far we’ve assumed that the baby bonus was actually a good policy, but is it really the case? Do you think that it’s something that’s desirable?

Dr Andrew Leigh: Well the best argument you can make for the baby bonus is that if families are credit constrained at the time of the birth, then this provides extra liquidity for families at the time the baby is born. And that any drop in expenditure at the time of the birth could have substantial adverse consequences. So, think about a family that has difficulty keeping the heat on, providing enough food, making sure that the parents are in good harmony. If you can stop there being shouting in the household in the first few months of a baby’s life, you might well improve the child’s life overall.

Dr Jan Libich: But this effect’s kind of reduced now that there’s not a once-off bonus, but it’s actually phased out over time – it’s paid fortnightly I think. So that’s probably not going to be very helpful to a credit constrained family.

Dr Andrew Leigh: Well, why so? It just means that family then has payments that they receive through the ensuing six months or so. Either through a baby bonus or paid parental leave. I would’ve thought potentially that’s even better for liquidity constraints, if you’re worried that a lump of cash might not be spent entirely on baby-related things.

Dr Jan Libich: Okay.

Now, in terms of the baby bonus, the original assumption, at least on my part, was that it’s trying to do something with the undesirable demographic trends. The fact the populations are aging in Australia as well as in other advanced countries. So that’s not the intention you think, trying to provide extra incentives for people to have kids?

Dr Andrew Leigh: I think it was always principally income support, trying to top up payments at around the time of the birth. To the extent that it was a birth incentive, I think that was given life by then-Treasurer Peter Costello’s statement to radio on budget night: that mums and dads should have one for him, one for her and one for the country. That, I think, is probably a pretty weak argument for the baby bonus. Joshua (Gans) and I didn’t look at it, but there’s a Melbourne Institute study by Mark Wooden and co-authors that estimates that for every extra baby born thanks to the baby bonus the cost to the budget is over $100,000.

Dr Jan Libich: So, talking about the demographic trends, are there any other policies you can think of that can be implemented or reformed to try to cater for the fact that when baby boomers retire it’s going to have a pretty big negative impact on the budget. Can you think of any policies that should be implemented?

Dr Andrew Leigh: So the aged-care reforms that are going on at the moment are aimed at a lot of that. One of the things that we just announced yesterday, which I think is quite clever, is thinking about training of aged care workers. At the moment we train aged care workers and doctors very differently. Doctors are trained in teaching hospitals, which have regimented curriculum programs and experienced doctors to mentor them. Aged care workers tend to just find themselves in whatever aged care home they work in. So we’re actually setting up teaching aged care centres to try to improve the quality of care. And try and also think about the way in which aged care is financed. I think it’s also important.

Dr Jan Libich: Yeah, because this is only going to impose more expenditure on the budget. It’s not actually going to help solve the situation.

Dr Andrew Leigh: Well it imposes more expenditure on Australians as a whole. And I think one of the ways in which you’ve seen the debate shift in the last 15 years is away from the notion that government ought to pay for everything, to the notion that if an elderly couple finds themselves in a situation where they have substantial assets and they want a better quality of aged care, it might be appropriate to ask them to pay for it. Because, really who’s ending up paying for it is the children who are receiving slightly smaller inheritances while their parent receives a better quality of aged care.

I think that conversation’s gotten better in Australia than it was in the 1990s. And structuring sort of appropriate bonds, protections around reverse mortgages – to make sure reverse mortgages can work. These are natural policies to economists to make sure the tax system doesn’t generate perverse incentives not to make a contribution, for those that can afford it, to getting better quality aged care.

Dr Jan Libich: I think the extent of the demographic problem is much bigger than even most people realise. I mean if you look at the projections over the next 25 years, the proportion of people over 65 in Australia is going to increase by about 50 per cent. From about 0.2, to maybe 0.35. So, it’s a major impact, and it’s not only on the pension scheme – Australia’s done a pension reform, which has been copied by many other countries – but it’s mainly health care. I mean, most of the health expenditure occurs in the last year or two of life. So if we had 50 per cent more aged people, that’s going to have a severe impact on the health care budget.

Dr Andrew Leigh: But I think one of the good things that economists have brought to this debate, Jan, is the notion that we ought to not just think of a 64 year old as a 64 year old. In some sense, you know, as Paul McCartney actually said when he turned 64, it’s quite different from what he thought it would be. And you see this. David Cutler has some nice work where he looks at the functional physical mobility of someone who is 64 now and someone who was 64 a generation ago. And you’re finding increases in the order of about 10 years. So today’s 64 year old is as mobile as a 54 year old a generation ago. And so that means people enjoy longer life spans. And another thing I think the demographers miss is that demographers often ignore price effects. As prices change, you also see demands change as well. So I worry that a little bit too much of this modelling is driven by simple age structure and not enough by the way in which we would think about it as economists with the prices included.

Dr Jan Libich: Okay, let’s move onto a different microeconomic policy which regards the minimum wage legislation. You have a 2007 study where you’re trying to assess to whom the minimum wage actually goes. Who’s the recipient? And surprisingly to some people, you find that it’s actually not the low income families but it’s the medium income families. And when you run the simulations the scenario that I found most realistic is actually going to lead to an increase in income inequality rather than a decrease. So, we think of minimum wages as a way to reduce poverty and reduce inequality, but it seems your research would imply that that’s actually a bad idea. So as a politician now, where do you see the minimum wage legislation?

Dr Andrew Leigh: So I find the minimum wage debate enormously frustrating. There’s one side of the debate that doesn’t acknowledge that there’s benefits in terms of earnings - to raising the minimum wage. And there’s another side of the debate.

Dr Jan Libich: Income effects?

Dr Andrew Leigh: Yeah. You raise the minimum wage, a bunch of people get wage rises and while they’re not all poor, they are disproportionately poor. And then there’s another group of people that don’t accept that there could be any dis-employment effects. I think both of those extreme cases don’t make much sense. I think there’s dis-employment effects and I think they’re probably fairly small. I think there’s also positive wage effects, although it actually turns out we have no studies in Australia looking at what the wage effect is, and understanding better how much a minimum wage increase flows through into wage packets is really important. You can write theoretical models in which the answer is ‘none’, or in which the answer is ‘all’, therefore theory tells us nothing and we’d like to have some more empirics. So, I think it is part of an anti-poverty toolkit but I think it will never be the only effective part of alleviating poverty. Things like earned-income tax credits, focusing on the impact of payroll taxes and income taxes, and of course education, are all going to be at least as important in fighting poverty as the minimum wage.

Dr Jan Libich: You have a very interesting study, I think with … just remind me … about predicting …

Dr Andrew Leigh: Ah, with Justin Wolfers.

Dr Jan Libich: Justin Wolfers, yeah, about forecasting election outcomes. And one of the things you do, you compare economic models. You compare the polls and you compare prediction markets. The interesting finding to some people is that you actually find that the prediction markets do very often give you a better answer than the polls. So now as a politician, is your party paying more attention to prediction markets?

Dr Andrew Leigh: Yeah, so you always learn good things from co-authors. With the baby bonus study I was sure when we began it that we wouldn’t find any effects and with the election forecasting paper, I said: Justin why do you want to include this prediction market stuff, isn’t it more interesting just to look at the economic models and the polls? And then he persuaded me that prediction markets were truly fascinating to look at. I certainly look at them, but there’s a large degree of path dependence in politics. That’s true in the commentariat. That’s also true within political parties themselves and so I think the temptation to continuing surveying and the kind of mid-20th century wave is going to be with us for quite a time to come. Despite the fact that it is so extraordinarily volatile. You and I know if you’re measuring something that has a margin of error of a couple of percentage points either way and you want to look at the change in that thing, then if two things measured with a two percentage point margin of error differ by two percentage points then chances are, you’re just looking at noise. But that’s not the impression you’d get if you looked at the front of a major broadsheet on the day they brought out their in-house poll.

Dr Jan Libich: Let me ask you about the influence of academic research, your personal research, on your personal life. So far we’ve looked at policy.

Dr Andrew Leigh: Yes.

Dr Jan Libich: You have an interesting study where you look at how divorce rates, and generally happiness, how it’s affected by the composition of children. You find that if people have a boy and a girl, they are less likely to get divorced. So given that your first child was a boy, I think I can disclose that, were you wishing for a girl as the second child?

Dr Andrew Leigh: So this is what economists would call having convex preferences over child gender. You can tell models in which people ought to enjoy having two children of the same kind for example because they can pass down the blue clothes or the pink clothes to the next child. But in general, you see convex preferences. So, you know, this is partly exhibited in the fact that parents with two kids of the same gender are more likely to go for a third than parents of two kids of different genders. My research also showed they were more likely to split up, not by a great a deal, but 1.7 percentage points which accounts for maybe a thirtieth of the total variation in marriage rates among those families.

But I don’t know whether this is because we’ve talked ourselves into it or whether it was always our preferences. So we’re delighted by the fact that we’re expecting a third boy. I feel like I know how to raise boys. I feel as though I know what sort of holidays we’ll have. They’re going to be active holidays in which we try and all exhaust one another. And I feel as though I know what kinds of empirical lessons I’ll be sitting down to teach my sons. And making sure by the time they turn 10, they understand the fallacy of the sunk cost and they can think at the margin.

Dr Jan Libich: Well, congratulations very much. And I have to say that your wife is due in about a week or so, and it’s exactly the reason why we have to pack up now because you’re catching a plane in about an hour.

We would like to thank you very much for joining us and for your ongoing efforts to contribute to public policy, not only in Australia, but worldwide. So, good luck for the birth – to you and your wife – and we’re looking forward to more of your ideas. And if things don’t work out for you in politics, we’d be very happy to have you back in economics.

Dr Andrew Leigh: Thank you very much. I think there’s maybe an absorbing state but I very much enjoy dabbling in economics and I think the popularisation of economics is enormously valuable and important to the future of our discipline.

Dr Jan Libich: Thank you.

Dr Andrew Leigh: Thanks, Jan.
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Cnr Gungahlin Pl and Efkarpidis Street, Gungahlin ACT 2912 | 02 6247 4396 | [email protected] | Authorised by A. Leigh MP, Australian Labor Party (ACT Branch), Canberra.