Andrew Leigh

I spoke on ABC RN Drive tonight with Arthur Sinodinos and Waleed Aly. We discussed mandates, micro-parties and Labor's future. Here's a podcast. And, here's the transcript:



TRANSCRIPT OF ANDREW LEIGH

RADIO NATIONAL DRIVE INTERVIEW

MONDAY 9 SEPTEMBER 2013



PROOF ONLY

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Subjects: Campaigning, senate preferences, minor parties, mandates, carbon tax

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WALEED ALY: I’m joined one last time for an election panel, Arthur Sinodinos who is possibly the incoming finance minister if he can hold onto his seat and Dr Andrew Leigh, the re-elected Member for the Canberra seat of Fraser, one of the few Labor MPs just to romp it in.

ARTHUR SINODINOS: Congratulations Andrew.

ANDREW LEIGH: Thank you very much Arthur. I very much hope you get back and get that finance role.

ALY: Yes, the congratulations can't be reciprocal at this point Arthur.

SINODINOS: No, we're still waiting. It looks like I'm number six, with postal votes close to come, so fingers and toes crossed. If you have any calculators, send them my way.

ALY: I don't know that any calculators which change the result. How much trouble are you actually in?

SINODINOS: Well look, the venerable and respected ABC election calculator has me winning the sixth spot based on the preference flows. But we'll wait and see. I don't want to jinx myself by calling these things.

ALY: I guess it's not my job to worry about you jinxing yourself (laugh) so I'll keep asking the questions. The thought was that Pauline Hanson might take your seat. That threat seems to have faded. Who do you think most likely to be your main competition?

SINODINOS: The Liberal Democrats took the number five position. They took eight per cent of the vote, largely I think because people thought they were the Liberals.

ALY: They've admitted that. They may have got votes by mistake. How does that make you feel?

SINODINOS: We had made representations about this to the AEC but that aside, we have to work with what we've got. That also cleared the pitch for people like Pauline Hanson. The way the distributions are going, I'm ahead of the Greens at this stage. So, hopefully, it'll stay that way. But that's life. That's politic arithmetic.

ALY: I suppose it is. Before we get to Labor side of the equation, given what we are about to see in the senate, and Arthur is caught up in that, but, we're likely to see in Victoria, the Motor Enthusiasts Party (MEP) apparently is in with a real chance for a seat with a minuscule, unbelievably small vote. Have we got a problem here?

LEIGH: It does seem an odd situation, doesn't it? A party that gets a very small share of votes are able to translate into a lot of electoral power. But you would need, I guess, strong support across the parliament for something like allowing optional voting below the line for the Senate. As I read it, there's not strong support for reform of that kind.

ALY: Is that because we've not seen a situation like this before. This could become high farce.

LEIGH: Well, Steve Fielding is as I recall, got a fairly small share of the primary vote.

ALY: Yeh, but that's one senator. If you have now, the MEP in Victoria and The Sports Party in WA.... It's starting to become a laughing stock.

LEIGH: A good voting system is definitely one in which people don't make mistakes in terms of translating their true value into the people that they elect. So, that's an important point. But you need very strong support to change the voting system and you don't want to do it unless carefully mapping out what it means for everyone and making sure it's fair.

ALY: Arthur, I know you're wrapped to have returned to government... I would have thought this is a silver cloud with a dark lining, given that the magnitude of the victory is really quite modest, given the swing against the government and the swing against the Greens and really only a fraction of that finding its way into the Coalition's hands.

SINODINOS: Ah, look, it's been a pretty solid victory when we get 87 or 90 seats or whatever. It's a pretty good majority. I think what happened during the campaign is that there were some unknowns that the published polls underestimated including the potential influence of the Palmer United Party both in the house and senate. There seemed to have been in some states a tendency to use the Palmer party as a protest vehicle so disaffected Labor votes went there and their preferences went all over the place after. That's a complication no one had really facted in, then of course, as usual afterwards, you can rationalise everything.

It's a solid victory and I'll just go back to what Bob Hawke said on Saturday night. Labor lost. It was a big, big loss. But we don't take anything for granted. These days the volatility of the electorate means you can be out in three years, let alone six or nine.

ALY: That seems unlikely. You're not in a position to take anything for granted. I would have thought that what these results show is that Labor lost but you’re certainly didn't win. You describe it as solid but actually it was quite patchy.

SINODINOS: No, no my friend, we came first. They came second. We're the government and with the benefit of incumbency if Tony behaves in the way he that he suggests he'll behave, we can potentially build on what was a solid victory. I don't buy this idea that somehow you lose by winning.

ALY: No, I'm not saying you lost. I'm just saying there's a difference here. This is not the landslide that you perhaps would have expected in just about any other election. This was a very different result.

SINODINOS: I think that was conditioned by some of the expectations in some of the polls, particularly some of the seat by seat polls that I think were quite unrepresentative because they were based on fairly small samples. I think the real complication in this election is not so much the house of reps but what's happened in the senate and the implications of that for us, being able to deliver our program. In some ways it could actually prove to be a better situation than having a Labor-Green alliance solidly blocking everything, but we're going to have to work; it's back to the old days as I recall, where you had to graft your way through the senate to a get a majority but, I mean, we're used to that. We'll have to do what's required to achieve our outcomes.

ALY: Possibly with a senate now one has ever confronted before. Andrew Leigh, what now for Labor? It seems to me that Labor has a massive hole that it can't fill in its constituency.



LEIGH: We need to recognise the things that went wrong. I think we spend too much time talking about internal issues and we weren't as unified as the Coalition. It's striking that their leader won an internal ballot by one vote back in 2009 but yet the Coalition very effectively united behind Mr Abbott. Nonetheless, we need to be careful not to trash our legacy. Disability Care, I had a woman come up to me on polling day, by the name of Deb who asked me to bend down to her wheelchair and she just said 'thank you for Disability Care'. That reminded me that there is an awful lot to be proud of in the last six years; the seat on the UN Security Council, the better schools reform, the tripling of the marine park network. So, we need to be careful that as we rebuild, we don't lose those golden threads of reform that link us back to successful past Labor governments.

ALY: Sure, but at the same time you had a party that was trying to outflank Coalition policy on asylum seekers, apparently not to great effect. You had a party that moved young single mothers onto the Newstart allowance, depriving them of money, something many in the party had trouble with. And again, apparently to no affect. The Vote Compass results were really interesting, that seemed to be showing that Labor supporters, the old block has seemed to have disappeared and Labor now has to chase people to the right and the left and it doesn't know where it's heading.

LEIGH: I think Labor has always been a party of the left Waleed. We've discussed the asylum seeker and single mother payment before around the questions of how do you stop drownings at sea and is it an appropriate policy setting that has a parent remaining at home until a child turns 16. Is that the best thing for a child? But I think in broad terms, ours was a centrist reforming government in the open economy tradition of Hawke and Keating. Our challenge now, if I look back on past Labor oppositions, to get that you need unity of purpose that was in the Beazley Opposition from 1996 through to 1998 when they won a majority of the popular vote, but without having, I think, making the mistake that that Opposition made of turning their back on what they did in government.

ALY: Okay. But, who are your constituency now. Can you describe to me the modern Labor voter?

LEIGH: Labor voters are people who aspire for a better future for themselves and their children, who care about fairness, who care for the environment and who are open and tolerant and want to build on the success of a multicultural Australia.

ALY: Okay, Arthur, let me ask you, of that description, what doesn't apply in your mind to the modern Liberal voter.

SINODINOS: All of that applies to the modern Liberal voter in the sense that, um, we try and cater for all aspirational Australians, including people of ethnic backgrounds and just across the board. I think the big difference between the two parties over the last few years, to an increasing extend, and Andrew is a bit of exception to this, the Labor party hierarchy and central machine has been people who have come up through the union movement or through ministers’ offices and the like. The Liberals on the whole tend to be a more grassroots sought of movement across the board, whether it's small business, working families, the big end of town. We try and build a big tent, and it's important we keep trying to do that.

ALY: Andrew Leigh, does it alarm you, the description you've provided of the Labor voter, is the description that Arthur provided of the Liberal voter? Thirty, 40 years ago that would never have happened.

LIEGH: It comes down to your question Waleed. The way I would define parties, is not by saying, who are your voters but what are your values. So, if you ask about our values, I would point to egalitarianism which I think is something that the conservatives wouldn't claim. I might have been tossed out of Arthur's party for writing a book about inequality and why it's bad.

SINODINOS: What, what?

LEIGH: Or at least, been poked in the ribs in the party room meeting. And then also, I think, small l-liberalism which is something that Arthur and people like Malcolm Turnball stand for but I think, less so, in the case of people like Barnaby Joyce and Tony Abbott.

SINODINOS: Can I give you a factoid Waleed? Exit polls from the Brisbane electorate on Saturday night, the number one issue - this is the inner city electorate of Brisbane that Terese Gambaro won with about 54-55 per cent of the vote. The number one issue for them was the economy, right. Now this is your inner city electorate which would the stereotypical electorate that might even favour the Greens a bit and be interested in, what you may describe, as higher issues once they've dealt with getting a job and having a reasonable standard of living. I found that really interesting. It goes to the point about peoples' hierarchy of needs and aspirations. Same-sex marriage and other issues did not rate very highly, interestingly enough.

ALY: One thing I want to ask you Andrew Leigh, before we wrap up, is what do you do now, especially on the issue of the carbon tax? Is that settled within the Labor Party - they know exactly how to respond to that in the senate or will we only find that out once the leader is chosen and is there an internal debate to be had?

LEIGH: Certainly my view is that we as a party have been committed to pricing carbon for at least six years now. We went to the 2007 as the Coalition did, supporting an emissions trading scheme because it's the most efficient and effective way to reduce carbon pollution. If you don't do that, then you have to answer the big question, how are you going to meet those bipartisan emission reduction targets. I think the question for Mr Abbott, if he intends to really pursue 'direct action' or soil magic as people tag it, is the question the Grattan Institute has raised, that Malcolm Turnball has raised, how do you actually keep those emission reductions targets when no expert says you can do it without really biting into household budgets? But if Mr Abbott wants to repeal the carbon tax, in the sense of going to an ETS from the middle of next year, then in fact both parties have a mandate to do that and we would of course, back him in that.

ALY: It will be interesting to see what decisions Labor as a party makes on this and how Tony Abbott will negotiate a new senate.



SINODINOS: Waleed, my advice to the Labor Party is, if you want to demonstrate to the public that you're listening, that's one of the first things you do, is accept there's a mandate from the Coalition over three years to abolish the carbon tax and go from there. You have to demonstrate when you go into opposition that you picked up the message from the electorate as we did in '07 when we passed the abolition of WorkChoices.

ALY: But then you didn't pass an ETS that they [Labor] came in with a mandate for and that you indeed when to the election on. This argument goes on forever.



SINODINOS: Well, they can pass our legislation on this now and go to the next election saying they will impose a carbon tax.

ALY: Yeh, well, I suspect it won't be that easy for you. Anyway, gentlemen, our time is up. I hope to have you again soon. I'm getting tweets already saying we need to make this permanent. I don't know that your staff would necessarily agree with that.

LEIGH: I think we might even have a mandate for that Waleed.

ALY: One tweet, definitely.

SINODINOS: I'm still trying to get my mandate [inaudible].

ALY: Arthur might have a lot of time of his hands.  We'll find out. Gentlemen, it has been great to have you on the show. Thank you very so much and I hope to do it all again soon.

SINODINOS: Thank you.

LEIGH: Goodluck

ALY: Arthur Sinodinos and Andrew Leigh joining us from the Liberal and Labor parties respectively.

ENDS

I did two interviews on local radio this morning about the lessons for Labor from the election loss, attempts to repeal the emissions trading scheme, how Canberra will fare amidst job-shedding, questions Mr Abbott needs to be asked (such as the impact on Indigenous incarceration of cutting Aboriginal Legal Aid), and the achievements of the ALP over the past six years:

• Podcast of 2CC conversation with Mark Parton


• Podcast of 666 conversation with Jo Laverty

On 9 September, I spoke with host Tim Lester and Liberal MP Kelly O'Dwyer on the achievements and mistakes of the Labor Government, why we should stick with the most affordable way of dealing with climate change, and the questions for the incoming government to answer (such as how it will build links with the US administration, given that most of the personal ties are to the Republican side of politics). Here's a video.

On 9 September, I spoke with host David Lipson and Liberal Senator Mitch Fifield about whether the ALP should swing like a weathervane on carbon pricing, the questions for the Coalition to answer in the days ahead, and what "minority government" looks like in the Senate.

Media Release

LABOR WILL DEFEND CANBERRA

An extra efficiency dividend on the public service will more spell even harder times for the Commonwealth Public Service should Tony Abbott and the Liberals win tomorrow’s election.

An extra 0.25 per cent increase in the efficiency dividend announced by the Liberals yesterday will take it to 2.5 per cent next financial year.

This is in addition to the minimum 12,000 jobs due to be axed if Tony Abbott wins government.

On the final day of the campaign, ACT Federal Labor representatives urged Canberra to remember the devastation to the local economy and relocation of families when Mr Howard was elected in 1996.

Senator Kate Lundy and MPs Andrew Leigh and Gai Brodtmann pledged to protect jobs and continue building a healthy and inclusive Canberra.

“We are proud of our investments in Canberra from Better Schools to the NBN that have enlarged the capacity of individuals and communities to thrive and meet the challenges of the 21^st century.”

“We’ve built DisabilityCare, put a price on carbon which business is positively responding to, and we’ve built Australia’s first national, fair and affordable paid parental scheme.”

“By contrast, Mr Abbott has not offered any alternative vision and continues to show contempt for the nation’s capital.”

“The Liberal’s commitments to the ACT this campaign have paled in comparison to Labor’s.

“Where Labor has made funding commitments for local organisations and services like the University of Canberra, the Gungahlin Jets and community legal centres, the Liberals have only pledged to cut.”

LABOR’S POSITIVE plan for THE ACT AND SOUTH EAST NSW Grow jobs and the build the new industries of the future A $1 billion plan for jobs beyond the mining boom so all our eggs aren’t in the one basket. A Jobs, Training and Apprenticeship Guarantee to make sure jobseekers are linked to jobs and the training they need. Help for Australian firms to win at least an extra $1.8 billion a year in work on big projects, and new opportunities for apprentices. Tax breaks for 3.2 million Australian small businesses. Keep Australia’s AAA credit rating and stop Mr Abbott’s $70 billion of Budget cuts that would hurt services and families. Better schools with more one-on-one attention for our kids An extra $1.6 million on average for every school across the nation. Extra individual literacy assistance for up to 1.1 million students. The Schoolkids Bonus to parents of $410 per primary and $820 per secondary student helping around 400,000 families with back-to-school costs. Boost skills with over 510 Trades Training Centres already announced around the country, 263 are already up and running, including 3 new Trade Training Centres that will benefit 9 schools in the ACT. World class infrastructure to build the businesses of tomorrow An NBN to connect Australian homes and businesses to world-class high speed internet. Continue delivering our $60 billion of investments in new road, rail and public transport infrastructure around Australia. A world class health and hospital system Continuing to invest in health and hospitals - we have already invested more than $2.3billion in hospitals and health infrastructure in the ACT and South East NSW since 2007. Investing $25 million to build GP Super Clinics in the ACT, Queanbeyan and Jindabyne to address the local health care needs and priorities of these communities. More than $268 million to tackle dementia as part of Federal Labor’s historic $3.7 billion aged care reforms. A stronger community and a fair go for all DisabilityCare Australia to support people with disabilities and their carers. Protect the penalty rates and overtime pay that around 22,000 workers rely on. Cost of living relief, including terminating the carbon tax to save families $380 next year. Increasing the Superannuation Guarantee from 9 per cent to 12 per cent, boosting retirement savings for 8.4 million Australians. This plan represents just part of Labor’s positive plan to build the future.  For more information, visit www.alp.org.au.

I had the opportunity to make a final 'election pitch' to Canberra voters, in speaking with Mark Parton this morning. Here's a podcast.

We all want the live a contributing life. Today, I was pleased to attend the launch of a program for people living with a severe mental illness; a program overseen by ACT Medicare Local aimed at ensuring more than 400 Canberrans can be assisted with their complex needs to live a meaningful and less-isolated life.

Media Release

Minister for Mental Health and Ageing Jacinta Collins

Senator for ACT Kate Lundy,  Member for Fraser Andrew Leigh

SEVERE MENTAL ILLNESS SUPPORT SERVICE LAUNCHED IN ACT

The Minister for Mental Health and Ageing, Senator Jacinta Collins joined Senator for  the ACT, Kate Lundy and Federal Member for Fraser, Andrew Leigh to launch the  Partners in Recovery program in Dickson today.

Partners in Recovery, a key plank of the Rudd Labor Government’s $2.2 billion mental  health reform package, provides coordinated support and flexible funding for people  with severe and ongoing mental illness with complex support needs.

“People living with psychosis are 10 times more likely to be homeless, 50 per cent less  likely to have completed school and have a life expectancy that lags the national  average by up to 30 years,” Senator Collins said.

“The last thing people with severe mental illness, their families and carers need is to battle with multiple service systems,” Senator Collins said.

The Partners in Recovery Program in Canberra is led by the ACT Medicare Local, and will bring together support services like income support, housing, employment and medical care to facilitate ‘wrap around care’ for people with severe and long term mental illness, and complex needs.

The ACT Medicare Local was funded almost $8 million over four years to deliver the Partners in Recovery program, as part of Federal Labor’s $2.2 billion mental health form package, and will provide community based recovery support for Canberrans with severe mental health issues.

Senator Lundy said the Partners in Recovery program was another example of how the ACT Medicare Local is supporting the health needs of the Canberra region.

“It is great to see the partnerships that have developed between our local support services through the consortium being led by the ACT Medicare Local”, Senator Lundy said.

Federal Member for Fraser, Andrew Leigh, said the Partners in Recovery program in Canberra is expected to deliver critical support to over 400 people.

“These are critical services in our local community, Canberra cannot afford for these programs to be cut under an Abbott Government,” said Dr Leigh.

The ACT Medicare Local employs around 30 frontline medical workers including GPs, nurses and care coordinators. These important services would be at risk under a Coalition government.

4 SEPTEMBER 2013

My Chronicle column this month continues the community-building theme, with a discussion of community-business partnerships.

Community Help from Business and Government, The Chronicle, 3 September 2013

A few weeks ago, I attended the opening of MLC Advice Canberra, a new financial planning business run by 30 year-old Michael Miller. In my role as your federal MP, I go to a lot of office openings, but this one was different. Alongside the finance boffins were a veritable who’s who of Canberra community organisations.

Care Inc director Carmel Franklin came along because Michael serves on her board. Others came to recognise his donations. With each new client, Michael makes a donation to Diabetes ACT, Menslink, or the UC Foundation for regional and Indigenous youth. When I asked him about this, Michael smiled and replied ‘Well, I’m young and I don’t have kids. The business is doing well, so why shouldn’t I help others too?’

Government has an important role in reducing disadvantage, whether it’s through DisabilityCare, Indigenous employment programs, or uncapping university places so more children can be the first in their family to get a tertiary education. But we also need to unleash the potential of Australia’s charities. Partly, that’s about the new Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission, which will reduce the burden of regulation and reporting. But it’s also about encouraging collaborations between innovative businesses and great charities.

A terrific community-business partnership is the Students Participating in Community Enterprise program, managed by Rikki Blacka of Volunteering ACT. The idea behind SPICE is to find students who are at risk of dropping out of school, and give them a work experience placement that will demonstrate the relevance of education. Local firms like Keirs Mechanical Repairs in Dickson and Beyond the Cutting Line in Melba have been great supporters of the program, mentoring young men and women who often end up going on to complete apprenticeships. Indeed, I’ve recently had a SPICE student in my own office.

The best community work by firms builds on their expertise and passion. Under managing director Glenn Keys, Aspen Medical (which last year was named ACT Exporter of the Year) has established the Aspen Foundation. The Foundation is targeting trachoma, an eye disease that still causes blindness in remote Indigenous communities.

In the same spirit, Beyond Bank Australia (formerly known as Community CPS Australia) has just announced a long-term partnership agreement with Volunteering Australia. This will see the bank supporting national initiatives to promote volunteering. CEO Robert Keogh also told me that Beyond Bank offers all its staff the chance to volunteer in the community for two days each year – an initiative that’s becoming increasingly popular across corporate Australia.

For me, encouraging volunteering, fostering philanthropy, motivating young leaders, and bringing together social entrepreneurs is a core part of being a good local member. If I’m fortunate to have the privilege of being re-elected as your local MP, it’s something I’m keen to continue over the next parliamentary term. So keep sharing with me your ideas about how we can work together to make this great city fairer and more prosperous in the years to come.

Andrew Leigh is the Federal Member for Fraser, and his website is www.andrewleigh.com.

The Daily Telegraph today features an op-ed of mine on austerity and inequality. Here's the (abridged) published version - the full text appears below.

It's not time to hit the austerity button yet, Daily Telegraph, 4 September 2013

If anyone doubted the relevance of Keynesian economics, the Global Financial Crisis taught the lessons better than any textbook could. As private demand wilted, every developed country put in place fiscal stimulus – designed to save jobs and keep businesses from going bust. On average, a larger stimulus package meant more growth.

Today, Australia faces the opposite challenge. The University of Queensland’s John Quiggin has estimated that every $10 billion cut from government spending is likely to reduce employment by 0.5 percent. In a workforce of 12.5 million, that means 62,500 more people without jobs.

This matters because the Coalition is still keeping its cuts better hidden than the City of Atlantis. In past elections, every Opposition policy announcement was accompanied by a sheet of offsetting savings measures – the same approach that the Government has taken to our announcements. But you’ll look in vain for a costings table in any recent Coalition policy announcements.

Costings conversations can be eye-glazing at times, but bear with me for a moment.

In May, Tony Abbott announced that he would scrap the mining tax and the carbon price, but keep the assistance to households. This cost $12 billion, and – for once - he identified some cuts in that process, including scrapping the Schoolkids’ Bonus and getting rid of 12,000 public servants.

So far so good. But when he announced a $5 billion dollar company tax cut, Mr Abbott claimed it would be paid for by the May savings, apparently forgetting he’d already spent them.

Then came the $22 billion paid parental leave plan – which Joe Hockey initially claimed would be 100 percent paid for by a 1.5 company tax levy. He then scaled this down to 50, 60 or 70 percent, before admitting he didn’t bother finding out before going on air. The truth is that the company tax levy pays for less than half the scheme.

And then we have the restoration of the private health insurance rebate to the most affluent, a policy whose price tag is around $8 billion and growing.

As US Republican Senator Everett Dirksen used to say, a few billion here, a few billion there, and soon you’re talking serious money. Saul Eslake, who is now chief economist at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch puts the gap at $30 billion. In the past, Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb have estimated it at $70 billion.

At the same time as Mr Abbott is promising big new spending programs to benefit the most affluent, he has promised to shrink government as a share of the economy in every year of his term.

This is no ‘relaxed and comfortable’ agenda, and the mask slipped slightly this week when Mr Abbott said that he would seek to emulate Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. Under Thatcher, UK unemployment peaked at 12 percent. Under Reagan, the US jobless figure peaked at 10 percent.

And that’s why Quiggin’s calculation is so important. If a $10 billion cut in spending raises the unemployment rate by 0.5 percent, just imagine what a $70 billion cut would do.

Some readers won’t need much imagination. If you’ve chatted to friends in the UK lately, you’ll know that their unemployment rate spiked from 5 percent to 8 percent in the GFC; and thanks to the austerity of a Conservative Government, has remained there ever since. Queenslanders know that they used to have an unemployment rate below the rest of Australia, but now record an above-average jobless rate. Again, conservative austerity is a significant part of the story.

After a generation of rising inequality, Tony Abbott’s policies will give the most to those that have the most. Abolishing the mining tax will line the pockets of billionaires. Abolishing the means-test on the private health insurance rebate will benefit families earning over $176,000. Paid parental leave will give five times as much to top earners at to minimum wage workers. A child born with a silver spoon in his mouth will get a gold one; the rest will have to make do with plastic.

But it’s not just the spending measures that are regressive – the impact of unemployment will likely fall on the most disadvantaged. When the economy falters – as it would do under severe austerity – it’s the least skilled who are typically the first to lose their jobs.

As polling day draws near, Australians need to realise that Mr Abbott’s agenda is profoundly out of touch with Australia’s egalitarian ethos. For all his sporting prowess, Mr Abbott far better resembles the Sherriff of Nottingham than Robin Hood.

Andrew Leigh is the federal member for Fraser, and his website is www.andrewleigh.com.

In the fourth and final 'Election Smackdown' on MIX 106.3, I debated Liberal candidate Zed Seselja on public sector job losses, costings secrecy and same-sex marriage. Here's a podcast.