The Sinodinos-Leigh Bet

Last night, the Young Economists (ACT) hosted a debate on economic policy between Senator Arthur Sinodinos and myself. I regard Arthur as a friend, and so the discussion was much more in the nature of good-natured jousting than angry sniping. Thanks to a bunch of great questions from the floor, we covered tax reform, the future of manufacturing, fostering entrepreneurship, and improving the quality of education for the most disadvantaged. Here's a podcast of the debate.

But it seemed like a chance to have some fun, so taking a leaf from Stephen Koukoulas's challenge to Joe Hockey (thus far unanswered), I challenged Arthur to a modest wager. In my view, Australia's economic fundamentals are now pretty good. I think they could well improve under a re-elected Labor government, but expect them to sour if the Coalition is elected. Needless to say, Arthur believes the opposite.

The wager focuses on three indicators:

  1. Annualised real GDP growth, most recently 2.5% (Mar 2013)

  2. Trend unemployment, most recently 5.7% (June 2013)

  3. Average variable mortgage interest rates, most recently 6.2%


If Labor is re-elected, I believe that a majority of these indicators will have improved by December 2014. Arthur believes that a majority of these indicators will have worsened.

If the Coalition is elected, I believe that a majority of these indicators will have worsened by December 2014. Arthur believes that a majority of these indicators will have improved.

The loser will donate $100 to a charity of their choosing (I nominated the Indigenous Reading Project).

Thanks to the Young Economists' Network (particularly Marcia Keegan) for organising the event.

Be the first to comment

Please check your e-mail for a link to activate your account.

Stay in touch

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter

Search



8/1 Torrens Street, Braddon ACT 2612 | 02 6247 4396 | Andrew.Leigh.MP@aph.gov.au