The Hon Andrew Leigh MP
Assistant Minister for Productivity, Competition, Charities and Treasury
E&OE TRANSCRIPT
TV INTERVIEW
ABC AFTERNOON BRIEFING, WITH SARA TOMEVSKA
MONDAY, 21 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECTS: Intergenerational Report; Artificial Intelligence; Productivity; Child Care; Immigration; Fuel Excise; One Nation
SARA TOMEVSKA: Well, now for a view from the government, I want to bring in the Assistant Minister for Productivity, Competition and Charities, Andrew Leigh. Andrew, welcome to the program.
ANDREW LEIGH: Thanks Sara, great to be with you.
SARA TOMEVSKA: Assistant Minister, this intergenerational report shows birth rates declining, weaker productivity growth and young people working longer and still struggling to buy a home in 40 years’ time. The Treasurer described elements of this report as confronting. Is it actually worse than that?
ANDREW LEIGH: There's certainly big international challenges being thrown at us. The geopolitical situation is quite uncertain. AI offers great upside potential but also significant downside risks. And we know that there are challenges in dealing with the Liberal debt that we were left with – work that continues under our government. The report shows that participation rates have come in higher than expected but we still need to do a lot of work on productivity.
Just to give you one example Sara, if we can increase productivity by 0.4 per cent, then in 40 years that translates to 15 per cent higher living standards for Australians. So, that's why it really is the main game for this government.
SARA TOMEVSKA: But a lot of the economic progress that's been projected in this report relies on AI. What if the digital revolution doesn't deliver?
ANDREW LEIGH: Well, we've also got a big productivity agenda in competition, modelled by the Productivity Commission to add some $13 billion to the economy. The work we're doing on scrapping non-compete clauses for 9 out of 10 workers will ensure people can move to a better job. That too increases productivity and wages. Artificial intelligence is an important technology and really here the challenge Sara, is about diffusion, because only 1 in 10 Australian firms say that they're significantly using AI in a way that's making a substantial impact on their businesses. So, if we can get more firms to the AI productivity frontier, ensure it's job augmenting rather than automating, then all of that is to the benefit of Australians.
SARA TOMEVSKA: But there's a lot of uncertainty in that. I mean, the truth is, we don't really know how AI is ultimately going to impact the workforce of tomorrow, wouldn't you agree?
ANDREW LEIGH: Well, we're already getting early signs. One of the optimistic stories comes from radiology, where radiologists are increasingly using AI to do a better job of interpreting diagnostic imaging. We're seeing more jobs for radiologists and they’re getting paid more than ever before. That's a great example of AI augmenting the workforce. Overall, we're seeing job growth for young Australians at a faster rate than for Australians aged over 25. That's the opposite of the pattern in the United States. We're seeing jobs up for coders, for example, 40,000 more coders now than when ChatGPT hit the market. So, many of the signs in the job market are good. The labour market is a great strength of the Australian economy and we're optimistic we're going to be able to capture the benefits of AI for the Australian people.
SARA TOMEVSKA: But this long-term productivity growth projection of 1.2 per cent. The Shadow Treasurer, Tim Wilson has accused Labor of ‘Cooking the books’. What do you say to that?
ANDREW LEIGH: When we came to office, we had the Coalition's unrealistic projection of 1.5 per cent. We brought that down to a much more realistic projection. We're working hand in glove with the Productivity Commission over implementing a series of recommendations through National Competition Policy. In the 1990s, National Competition Policy added some $5,000 a year to the incomes of the typical Australian household. The work we're doing with states and territories around occupational recognition, around allowing a seamless national economy – all of that is aimed at increasing the speed limit of the Australian economy.
SARA TOMEVSKA: On birth rates – this report also projects fertility will fall to just 1.34 children per woman by 2065, while the number of Australians aged over 85 triples. Who is going to look after us? I mean, is the government modelling how many roles in the care economy are going to be taken up by AI or robots?
ANDREW LEIGH: The care economy has been a big source of employment growth and I think that's a good thing. More of us are working in the services sector than ever before and that number is projected to rise. And of course it's great that life expectancy is continuing to push up; projected to go to 90 for women and 86 for men in 40 years’ time. We’re also seeing…
SARA TOMEVSKA: But is it concerning to you that fertility rates will be dropping?
ANDREW LEIGH: Look, we would prefer that it were otherwise, but that's the norm around the world, Sara. As you know, we're seeing drops in fertility rates not just in advanced countries but across most developing countries as well. Fertility rates have peaked now in places like China and India, and ours are certainly well above countries such as Korea and Japan, which are seeing much more significant challenges.
SARA TOMEVSKA: What do you think about this idea of financial incentives to get Australian families to have more kids?
ANDREW LEIGH: My read of the evidence as an economist is that the biggest impact you have is around child care, and that's why we made it such a priority upon coming to government. Improving access to child care, ensuring that it is affordable for Australians. The economic evidence is that that is the best lever that you can pull in order to encourage families to have the children that they want to have. You don't want women in particular to be choosing between career and family. Claudia Goldin has a great book on this and there's a lot of really strong evidence about the importance of high quality, accessible early childhood and that's why it's been such a big priority for our government.
SARA TOMEVSKA: Look, this report underscores the need for migration, particularly targeted skilled migration. Labor has committed to slashing the NOM to 225,000 people by 2028. Over the longer term, what does that number need to look like? Does it actually need to be higher to address workforce shortages?
ANDREW LEIGH: Look, I differ with your characterisation of ‘slashing’ there, Sara. We're on track for 245,000 this year, looking to 225,000 in a couple of years’ time. That's about a 10 per cent fall. Very different from the sort of slashing that would take place if it were One Nation or some of their sister right wing parties to take power…
SARA TOMEVSKA: But I guess the question is, does it need to be higher to deal with the fact that we're going to have three times as many octogenarians in 40 years?
ANDREW LEIGH: It’s about the mix. So, you look at some of the things we've done. For example, saying to undergraduates from most countries that if you're coming to study in Australia, you can't immediately bring your family. Being clear to backpackers that you don't have an automatic right of a second and a third year of work. That's about making sure we've got immigration that is right sized for the economy, that we're bringing in people with the skills that the economy needs.
SARA TOMEVSKA: I just want to turn to the Coalition's plan to halve the fuel excise every time the price of Brent crude oil is over US$100 a barrel for more than two weeks. Look, the government has rubbished this proposal. But if the metric isn't to cut the fuel excise when it is at these elevated prices, what is it? Is it just when the Prime Minister says so?
ANDREW LEIGH: Well, we put in place emergency measures which were carefully calibrated for the circumstances of the first half of this year. What you've seen from the Coalition is an arbitrary, uncosted scheme that would cost the budget a bomb and mean that Australians would pay higher taxes. If the international oil price is $99, then there's no change to the fuel excise. If it goes to $101 under their model, then the budget is paying out a billion...
SARA TOMEVSKA: But what's the metric? How does the government decide when to deliver relief?
ANDREW LEIGH: We made a decision early on this year to put in place emergency measures for those circumstances which existed around the Iran war. What you're seeing now is an extremely expensive policy. This costs a billion dollars a month, Sara and that has to be paid by higher taxes on Australians or slashing services, as the sort of model that we saw them take to the last election.
SARA TOMEVSKA: You're an economist. Some economists argue that the fuel excise is actually deflationary because it reduces the input costs that would otherwise drive up the cost of everything else, including groceries. Is there an argument that this kind of relief would actually reduce pressure on inflation?
ANDREW LEIGH: Well, you can only imagine what this would do to inflation expectations if the oil price was sitting around $100 a barrel. Suddenly, a fuel excise would be cut. Suddenly it would come back on. Suddenly it would be cut. Suddenly it would come back on. Not to mention the heavy road user side of this. That is a fee that goes to pay for the maintenance of our roads. And suddenly that important source of revenue would dry up. They just haven't thought this stuff through. They're in a battle with One Nation and they're all about trying to win the polls against One Nation rather than delivering sensible economic policies.
SARA TOMEVSKA: Alright. Andrew Leigh, thanks for your time. We'll have to leave it there.
ANDREW LEIGH: Thanks so much Sara.
SARA TOMEVSKA: And that was the Assistant Productivity Minister, Andrew Leigh, on the intergenerational report released today and more.
ENDS