TRANSCRIPT – AM AGENDA WITH KIERAN GILBERT
Andrew Leigh MP
Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister
Member for Fraser
21 May 2013
E&OE
TOPICS: Equal marriage, school funding
Kieran Gilbert: This is AM Agenda, thanks for your company. Joining me now from Melbourne, the Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Small Business, Scott Ryan, and the Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, Andrew Leigh here in the Canberra studio. You heard what Senator Brandis had to say, Andrew Leigh, about Kevin Rudd; that this is all about him, not about same-sex marriage. What do you say to that?
Andrew Leigh: Well Kieran, it’s pretty clear that views on this issue have shifted and shifted pretty markedly. We’ve seen just over recent months same-sex marriage become law in New Zealand and Britain because Conservative leaders allowed their Party room to vote the way they wanted to. If Mr Abbott will do that in Australia, we’ll bring the vote back to the floor…[inaudible]
I spoke on the Matter of Public Importance debate today about the strong Australian economy, and the choices that Mr Abbott faces with his budget reply.
Matter of Public Importance – Australian Budget, 15 May 2013
Dr LEIGH (Fraser—Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister) (16:12): It is my pleasure to rise on this matter of public importance to speak about the strength of the Australian economy and the important choices that this budget makes. The Australian economy is performing strongly by international standards. As previous speakers have noted, we have grown 13 per cent since 2007. It is a period when the United States has only grown a couple of per cent and when all of Europe has actually shrunk. The European economy is smaller now than it was then. Australia’s economy has moved up the rankings from being the 15th largest to the 12th largest in the world. We have seen faster productivity growth over recent years than we saw under Work Choices, giving the lie to the notion that all that stands between Australia and stellar productivity performance is cutting back workers’ entitlements. We have seen the sharemarket up. In fact the sharemarket is up more than 10 per cent just this year.
I spoke this morning with Mark Parton about the federal budget, and the clear choice it presents for this year’s election: between Labor’s nation-building reforms in health, schools and DisabilityCare, and the Coalition’s threatened cuts. Here’s a podcast.
TRANSCRIPT – 2CC BREAKFAST WITH MARK PARTON
Andrew Leigh MP
Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister
Member for Fraser
15 May 2013
On Sky’s “The Nation” program with David Speers, Andrew Leigh MP joined an “all economist” panel with respected commentator Jessica Irvine, Liberal MP Paul Fletcher and former Liberal leader John Hewson. We discussed the strength of the Australian economy, the hit on budget revenues, Labor’s DisabilityCare reforms and the Coalition’s regressive parental leave scheme & “WorkChoices lite” policy.
On Sky AM Agenda, I spoke with host Kieran Gilbert and Liberal Senator Simon Birmingham about the drop in federal government revenue, and the challenges this poses for policy costings on both sides of politics.
TRANSCRIPT – SKY AM AGENDA
Andrew Leigh MP
Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister
Member for Fraser
30 April 2013
TOPICS: New revenue and budget forecasts, Coalition plans for cuts, the challenging fiscal environment.
On ABC24′s Capital Hill program, I spoke with host Lyndal Curtis and Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella about the challenging budget circumstances Australia faces, with federal revenues having fallen from 24% to 22% of GDP.
On ABC702 yesterday, I enjoyed a conversation with host Richard Glover and guests Dick Smith and Malcolm Turnbull, ranging from carbon pricing to urban congestion, parliamentary roles to economic growth, helicopter travel to books that make you cry. Here’s a podcast.
To mark ‘World Happiness Day’, Sky News invited me to talk about the economic evidence on happiness with presenter Stan Grant. We discussed how you measure happiness, where it can be a useful tool, and why new evidence shows that the “Easterlin Paradox” doesn’t hold up.
On the Sky Showdown program, I spoke with presenter Chris Kenny and Liberal MP Jamie Briggs. Topics included why media laws needs to keep pace with changing technologies and the Coalition’s attempts to keep their cuts secret from voters.
On Breaking Politics yesterday, I spoke with Tim Lester about the Canberra Centenary, the Western Australian election result, and the Australian economy. You can watch it here.
On Sky AM Agenda, I spoke with host Kieran Gilbert and Liberal Senator Mitch Fifield about the choice between economic debt of 10% of GDP and a social debt of 200,000 unemployed; about the government’s plans for better schools; and about the passing of former House Speaker Joan Child.
I have an opinion piece in the Australian today, continuing to prosecute the case that Labor is the true party of small-L liberalism in Australia (on the same theme, see also my first speech, this Global Mail article and this speech to Per Capita).
In the United States, if you want to insult a right-winger, call them a ‘liberal’. In Australia, if you want to insult a left-winger, call them a ‘Liberal’. In both countries, liberalism has become detached from its original meaning.
It’s time to bring Australian liberalism back to its traditional roots. Small-L liberalism involves a willingness to protect minority rights (even when they’re unpopular) and a recognition that open markets are the best way to boost prosperity.
Rarely have economic commentators been so united on an issue arguing that the Australian Government should not aim for a budget surplus this year. From John Quiggin to Warwick McKibbin, the OECD to the IMF, respected economists across the political spectrum have taken the view that the best economic approach is not to try and fill the 2012-13 government revenue shortfall by making further budget cuts.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, there’s barely any difference between a $1 billion surplus and a $1 billion deficit. Far more important is the fact that when the Global Financial Crisis hit, we increased spending: supporting jobs through household payments and infrastructure programs. In the past five years, we’ve found savings that total $138 billion. We boosted government spending when private demand fell, and cut spending as private demand recovered.
I spoke in parliament today about the state of the Australian and global economy (and snuck in a few words of thanks to my staff, interns, volunteers and family).
Review of the Reserve Bank of Australia Annual Report, 29 November 2012
The review of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s annual report is an opportunity to reflect on the strength of the Australian economy and on some of the potential threats to that ongoing strength. If you had told any economic policy maker two decades ago that, three years after the biggest downturn since the Great Depression, the Australian unemployment rate would have a ’5′ in front of it, inflation would be in the middle of the target band and growth would be at around the long-term average, they would say that you were dreaming. But that has been the stand-out performance of the Australian economy over recent years.
On Sky AM Agenda, I spoke about lessons from President Obama’s victory for Australian politics, the need to better manage peak power demand, and why good governments routinely cost policy ideas that are in the public domain. The presenter was David Lipson and my co-panellist was Kelly O’Dwyer.
On ABC24 Capital Hill, we spoke about Australia’s trifecta of strong growth, low unemployment and stable inflation; about the difficult issue of live exports; and about wheat deregulation. The host was Lyndal Curtis and my co-panellist was Dennis Jensen (who bravely abstained from the Coalition’s vote against deregulating the wheat export market).
In 2008-09, I was seconded to Treasury. It was an extraordinary time to be there, seeing how a good response to fiscal stimulus gets crafted. And while I was an SES officer, my short stint meant that I did much more listening than talking.
But one thing I can claim credit for is the suggestion that when the $900 tax payments were being delivered in 2009, that the timing should be randomised by postcode, so as to allow the possibility of a subsequent randomised evaluation.
I’m pleased to report that such an evaluation has now been done, with my former ANU colleagues Emma Aisbett and Ralf Steinhauser (along with Markus Brueckner and Rhett Wilcox) combining a list of random postcodes with household spending data from AC Nielsen’s Homescan survey.
While their research finds little impact on some types of spending, it’s not hard to see why this is at odds with other studies – including mine- which find a large impact of the Australian fiscal stimulus on expenditure.
The problem is that while the Homescan dataset is the only one that lets you measure week-to-week spending patterns, it only captures groceries. So if someone spends their cheque on a washing machine, bicycle or restaurant meal, it gets missed.
The other factor is that this new study is very short-term. So if groceries spending went up after a two-month delay, it wouldn’t be captured.
So it’s perfectly consistent to note that the stimulus had a big overall effect, while also observing more limited impacts on narrow categories of spending. And I think the totality of the evidence is useful – unlike some evidence from the US, Australian households are typically not so badly off that their initial response to receiving a $900 payment is to stock up the fridge.
I spoke in parliament today about good economic management and the importance of Oppositions – ACT and Federal – producing properly costed policies.
Matter of Public Importance, 10 October 2012
It is a pleasure to rise to speak in a debate on the strength of the Australian economy and the right policy settings. Any discussion about where the Australian economy is headed needs to recognise that we are in the midst of one of the biggest terms of trade shocks in Australia’s history. In the history of the Australian economy, when a terms of trade shock has come along—whether it was in the 1930s, 1950s or the 1970s—it has blown the place up. Yet, despite a massive increase in the terms of trade—a massive increase in the ratio of export prices to import prices—the Australian economy, this time, has remained strong. Unemployment has stayed at 5-point-something and inflation has stayed low.
I appeared on Lateline on 5 October 2012, speaking about the increasingly scratchy tone of debate in Australian politics; the way that Labor policies such as paid parental leave, equal pay and superannuation have helped women; the strength of the Australian economy; and Labor’s decision to replace a badly-targeted dental policy with a better one. A transcript is here.
My La Trobe University chat with moderator Robert Manne and Greens MP Adam Bandt (‘The Future of the left in Australia: Labor and the Greens; friends or enemies?’) is now available as a podcast via ABC Radio National Big Ideas and a vodcast via Slow TV.
On Sky AM Agenda, I spoke with host David Lipson and Liberal MP Kelly O’Dwyer. We discussed budget measures (including Labor’s focus on efficiencies over the Coalition’s job cuts), the resurgence of closed-economy thinking in the Coalition, and Labor’s important achievements over the past five years.
I spoke yesterday on a Matter of Public Importance debate, on the topic of Australian government debt (and drawing upon the new Fairfax database of members’ interests).
MPI on Debt, 13 September 2012
If you want to know what the member for North Sydney thinks about debt, don’t listen to what he says in this House. You know what those opposite say in this House is not to be taken as gospel truth. Listen to what he said on 17 April, when he travelled to London to give a speech and talked about the debt that Hong Kong held. He said that the debt that Hong Kong held was ‘moderate’. How much debt does Hong Kong hold? It holds debt that is 34 per cent of GDP in gross terms. That is about twice Australia’s gross debt, which will peak at 18 per cent. So the only reasonable way the member for North Sydney could characterise Australia’s debt would be ‘low’. Australia’s net debt will peak at 9.6 per cent. So, if you want to find what those opposite really think about the economy, look at what they say when they go to London. When the member for North Sydney went to London, he noted that Hong Kong’s debt was moderate; therefore, ours would be low. When the Leader of the Opposition went to London last year, he said:
I spoke in parliament last night on an amendment calling on the Coalition to submit their costings to the independent Parliamentary Budget Office.
Coalition Costings and the Parliamentary Budget Office, 10 September 2012
The motion which we are debating this evening is moved by the member for Mayo, who is one of the self-appointed group of modest members. The term ‘modest members’ is not only a current misnomer but also a historical reference to the great Bert Kelly. In thinking about speaking to the member for Mayo’s motion I thought perhaps I would go to my bookshelves and pull down Economics Made Easy by Bert Kelly. As I listened to the member for North Sydney, I was struck by the words in Rod Carnegie’s introduction. He says, ‘When confrontation and mutual name calling are stock forms of debate it does us all a service to learn and relearn that shouting loud and long need not be as effective as gentle persuasion.’
We have just had 10 minutes of long, loud shouting from the member for North Sydney. It is not quite clear what the member for North Sydney is saying about the coalition’s position on preferencing the Greens in the electorate of Melbourne. The historical record shows that the decision by the Liberal Party to preference the Greens Party in Melbourne saw the first election at a general election of the current member for Melbourne. In his speech, the member for North Sydney said, ‘We don’t back frauds,’ and, ‘You’ll suffer,’ but it is not clear whether they are words which ought to be taken as gospel truth and carefully scripted remarks or whether they are merely off-the-cuff rhetoric to be thrown around in a debate and have no matter when it comes to the Liberal Party’s decision on preferencing at the next election.
In the latest Quarterly Essay, I’ve penned a response to Laura Tingle’s discussion of the role of government, social spending, and whether Australians are congenitally cross.
Response to Laura Tingle’s Quarterly Essay ‘Great Expectations’
Published in Quarterly Essay #47 (2012)
In 2002, David Moss described the role of government as being the ultimate “risk manager.”[1] Governments, Moss believed, ought to act as a backstop for things that might go wrong in our lives. Just as we buy private insurance to pool our risk with other customers, so governments allow us to pool social risk across other citizens. You can think of your taxes partly as an insurance premium.
The notion of government as risk manager doesn’t cover the full gamut of what governments do, but it does encapsulate many of their important roles. For example, governments help guard against overseas threats and keep our streets safe. Managing risk explains why we have a social safety net to guard against the risk of poverty, a public health care system to deal with the risk of illness, and a public education system to remove the risk that a poor family might not be able to afford to educate their child.
On ABC 666 Pollie Panel, I spoke with presenter Ross Solly and Liberal Senator Gary Humphries about muckraking in politics and the half-billion of planned investment in the resource sector. Podcast here.
I was astounded today when the opposition voted against my motion recognising the strong Australian economy and requesting we put facts before fear in economic debates.
My media release on it is as follows:
Dr Andrew Leigh MP
Member for Fraser
MEDIA RELEASE
16 August 2012
Tony Abbott opposed to using facts in economic debates
The House of Representatives today passed a Private Member’s Motion moved by Member for Fraser, Dr Andrew Leigh. The Private Member’s Motion recognised the strength of the Australian economy and called upon all Members to approach economic debates with facts rather than fear.
The long tail of academic publishing means that two years after leaving my professorial post at ANU, I’m still having pieces appear in the journals. In case it’s of interest, here are the handful of publications that have come out in 2012.
On Sky AM Agenda, I spoke with host Kieran Gilbert and Liberal MP Steve Ciobo about Australia’s strong pipeline of mining investment, the review of the Fair Work Act, and how policymakers should respond to changes in the media landscape.
I spoke in parliament last night about the tax switch on 1 July, which will see taxes rise for polluters and fall for many workers. I also mentioned the Leader of the Opposition’s pythonesque scare campaign.
Carbon Pricing
18 June 2012
A few years ago a Prime Minister of Australia said the following:
‘Implementing an emissions trading scheme and setting a long-term goal for reducing emissions will be the most momentous economic decisions Australia will take in the next decade. … This is a great economic challenge for Australia as well as a great environmental challenge. Significantly reducing emissions will mean higher costs for businesses and households, there is no escaping that and anyone who pretends otherwise is not a serious participant in this hugely important public policy debate. It will change the entire cost structure of the economy. We must get this right; if we get this wrong it will do enormous damage to our economy, to jobs and to the economic wellbeing of ordinary Australians, especially low-income households.’
Of course Prime Minister John Howard was just reflecting conventional economic wisdom when he said this in 2007. The first emissions trading scheme blueprints were produced in the 1990s.